Mid-South Duck Migration Report: Nov 10, 2026

Week two of our weekly report. Everything here comes from state and federal agencies: their counts, their water tables, their river gauges and their forecasts. No hunter reports and no rumors. When an agency hasn't posted something, we say so. Last week's report is here if you want to compare.

The short version

• Tennessee applications close today. The Mid-segment WMA quota hunt window runs Oct 21–Nov 10 (TWRA). Don't leave it until tonight.
• First official Mid-South count of the season: TWRA counted 350 ducks on Black Bayou Refuge at Reelfoot Lake on Nov 2. That's mostly green-winged teal and wood ducks, with 50 mallards.
• Arkansas WMA water is improving a little. AGFC's tables now show more units flooding at Point Remove, Raft Creek and Galla Creek. Most greentree reservoirs are scheduled to close their structures this week, but none shows flooded yet.
• The Mississippi River is rising. Memphis came up about 1.7 feet in a week. The NWS forecast tops out just above zero on Nov 14, then falls again.
• A cold front arrives Wednesday night. North winds Thursday, highs near 50 by Friday and the first frost for much of the region by Saturday morning.
• Louisiana's West Zone opens Saturday, Nov 14. Arkansas and the Louisiana East Zone open Nov 21.

1. Official counts in the Mid-South

What the Tennessee number tells you: 350 birds on one refuge in the first week of November is an early-season count, not a forecast. The mix is what you'd expect this early: teal and wood ducks, with mallards a small share. TWRA's survey form lists the water condition at Black Bayou as "60%." TWRA labels these as bi-weekly counts, so more refuges should appear as the season goes. We'll post each one here and on the migration map.

2. Drought: Arkansas and Louisiana got worse, Tennessee got a little better

U.S. Drought Monitor, map dated Nov 3, 2026 (share of each state in each category or worse), with last week's map for comparison:

Source: U.S. Drought Monitor state statistics (National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA). Last week's rain helped Tennessee, but Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi all moved the wrong way. The next map comes out Thursday, Nov 12.

3. Arkansas WMA water: what changed this week

AGFC keeps public tables of its moist-soil units and greentree reservoirs (AGFC wetland management). "Flooded" there means at least 1 inch of water. As the tables read on Nov 9 (notes carry their own dates):

Moist-soil units with real water (80% or more):

• Ed Gordon Point Remove: 7A is 95% flooded, Unit 9 80%, Race Track 100% (as of Oct 25) and LIL Hole 80% (Oct 28). Flooding began Nov 2–5 on Willow Hole, Cedar Ridge (25%), Salt Lick (20%), Remmel Marsh (40%) and Turkey Pond 13A. The rest of Point Remove is still at 0%. AGFC notes staff have asked the local irrigation district about buying water.
• Steve N. Wilson Raft Creek Bottoms: Unit D 90% with both hunt holes ready; Unit C 60% (holes C31–C34 ready); Unit A 20% (holes A6 and A7 ready). Unit B won't be close to full until about Jan 1 even with round-the-clock pumping. Pumping on the youth unit started Nov 5.
• Frog Bayou: units 2–5 at 90%, unit 14 at 80% and pumping; unit 6 began pumping Nov 5. The draw units 7, 9, 17 and 18 are still at 0%.
• Sheffield Nelson Dagmar, Conway George: Units A, B and C at 90%; Dark Corner 1 at 95%; Dark Corner 2 at 30% and pumping.
• Also flooded: Dardanelle's McKennon Bottoms and Potter's Pothole; Ozark Lake's three Dyer units (90%); Petit Jean River's Blacklands West and Slaty (90%); Prairie Bayou unit 1; Freddie Black Choctaw Island unit 4 (85%).
• New this week: Galla Creek is listed at 60% flooded. It was listed as dry in our Nov 3 report.

Still dry ("no rainfall" or no water available): the Big Lake moist-soil units, most of Cypress Bayou, Ozan, Mike Freeze Wattensaw and the Knobel units at Dave Donaldson Black River.

Greentree reservoirs (flooded timber): no GTR shows a current flooded status yet. AGFC's plan lists "week of Nov. 9" to close structures at most GTRs, including Bayou Meto's Vallier, Government Cypress, Cannon Brake, Temple Island and Buckingham Flats units, Big Lake, Dave Donaldson Black River and Dagmar. Big Lake's GTR flooding is set to begin Nov 12. Two exceptions to know about:

• Shirey Bay Rainey Brake: Lake Charles is 7.5 feet below normal, and AGFC says it's unlikely any water will be available to release for the 2026-27 season.
• Harris Brake: the lake is 2 feet below normal, and AGFC says no water will be released without significant recovery.

Closing a structure isn't the same as having water. A closed GTR catches rain and runoff, and some get pumped, so check the live tables before you drive.

4. Rivers and lakes

Readings at about 7 a.m. Central, a week apart. Source: NWS river gauges via water.noaa.gov. Live charts for each are on our river levels page. Lake readings are pool elevations in feet above sea level, not river stages.

• Mississippi River: the NWS forecast issued Nov 8 has Memphis cresting around +0.6 ft on Nov 14–15, then dropping to about −2.3 ft by Nov 21 and near −4.5 ft by late November. Helena crests near 7.6 ft around Nov 16. A rise of a few feet won't put water in the backwaters. MDWFP says the river doesn't enter Tunica Cutoff until Memphis is above about 6 ft (MDWFP). It may change which sandbars and chutes you can run, so recheck your launch.
• Cache and St. Francis: both are flat. Patterson is forecast to hold near 2.2 ft through Thursday.
• North Mississippi lakes: all four pools dropped again. Arkabutla gave back last week's rise and more.
• Reelfoot Lake: 11.28 ft on the USGS gauge Monday morning, about where it has sat since late October (USGS 07027000).

Our low-water guide has this week's refreshed gauge table and what each reading does and doesn't tell you.

5. What's coming from the north

These counts are outside the Mid-South, but they're the closest official numbers to "what's on the way."

• Loess Bluffs National Wildlife Refuge, Missouri (USFWS), Nov 3: 74,337 ducks, up from 43,775 the week before. Gadwall (24,400), green-winged teal (22,305) and northern pintails (20,830) led the count. Mallards rose to 710 from 170. White-fronted geese jumped to 34,600 from 11,600. The refuge reported 3,550 acres of wetlands flooded and none frozen (USFWS report, PDF).
• Iowa DNR statewide survey, week ending Nov 6: ducks up 20.3% from the week before and 15.1% above the same week last year. Pintails were again the most common duck, followed by green-winged teal and mallards. Red Rock (12,900 ducks) and Rathbun (9,760) had the biggest totals (Iowa DNR, PDF).

What that means for us: the build-up in Missouri and Iowa kept going, and it's still mostly gadwall, teal and pintails. Mallards are growing but are still a small share at Loess Bluffs (about 1 duck in 100). Nothing there is frozen yet. The big mallard flights usually wait for ice and snow farther north.

6. Weather this week: a real cool-down, not a big push (yet)

From the National Weather Service forecasts for Memphis and Stuttgart issued Monday morning (NWS Memphis) and the Weather Prediction Center's extended discussion issued Monday at 2:34 a.m. EST (WPC):

• Tuesday and Wednesday: sunny and warm, highs in the low to upper 70s. A 30% chance of showers Wednesday afternoon, with little rain expected.
• Wednesday night into Thursday: a cold front passes. Thursday brings north-northwest winds around 15 mph with gusts to 25, and highs near 59 at Memphis and 65 at Stuttgart.
• Friday and Saturday morning: highs near 50 to 55 and lows near 33. WPC expects temperatures 5 to 15 degrees below normal east of the Mississippi River and the first frost or freeze of the season for the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, and parts of the Deep South, by Saturday morning.
• The catch: WPC also has a ridge of warm air over the southern Plains and central Canada, with the central and northern Plains 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Our read: Thursday's north wind may nudge birds that are already staging in Missouri and Iowa, but warm weather up north doesn't force the big flights south. We'll call a real push here when the forecasts show one.

7. Dates this week and next

Louisiana reminders from LDWF's Nov 5 release: every waterfowl hunter 16 and older needs a Federal Duck Stamp; hunters 18 and older also need a basic hunting license and HIP certification; and LDWF WMAs need a WMA Access Permit (or one of the licenses LDWF lists) for anyone 18 and older (LDWF).

Arkansas reminders from AGFC's rules page: on WMAs, shooting ends at noon during the regular season, and you must be off the water by 1 p.m. (noon at Dave Donaldson Black River and Bayou Meto) (AGFC). Every window is on our draw deadline calendar. Our Arkansas permit draw explainer covers how the weekly draws work.

8. Agency news: Tennessee hires Arkansas's director

On Nov 5, the Tennessee Fish and Wildlife Commission unanimously appointed Doug Schoenrock as TWRA's next executive director. Schoenrock has been director of the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission since May 2025 and is a past president of Ducks Unlimited. He starts at TWRA at the beginning of the new year. Current TWRA director Jason Maxedon retires Nov 30, and TWRA general counsel Torrey Grimes will serve as interim director in between (TWRA, Nov 5, 2026).

For hunters, nothing changes this season: seasons, draws and rules for 2026-27 are already set in both states. AGFC's news feed had no announcement about its own next director as of Nov 9.

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